Future of Online Learning in Higher Education
Gen Z, Artificial intelligence (AI), large language models (LLM), micro credentials, gig-economy, post-pandemic world, and falling college enrollment rates all offer challenges and opportunities for higher education over the next decade. Shifting the balance even more towards online education can offer some solutions, but will also present some challenges.
Spyglass
College enrolment rates have fallen 23% from 2010 to 2022 in the US (Hanson, 2024). According to Meyer (2023), the rising cost of post-secondary education is one key contributing factor to students’ reluctance to enroll. “For public 4-year colleges, when tuition and the cost of attendance are compared between an online degree and an in-person degree, the online degree is $31,165 cheaper.” (Hanson, 2024). This combination alone warrants shifting post-secondary education to the online realm. Harnessing AI-powered tools in the future will assist colleges in keeping the cost of online education in check.
There are some indications that recruitment values continuous professional development (Webstarter HR, 2023). One popular way to gain lifelong learning is through micro-credentials. Maggioncalda writes that “… employers said they are 76% more likely to hire a candidate with an industry micro-credential” (2023). Online platforms are a convenient way of providing these short courses for people already in employment, as taking time off to attend an in-person class might not be possible.
The increasing role of AI in undertaking technical tasks will shift the emphasis in human resource employment to soft skills (Gurchiek, 2023), such as creativity, resilience, and interpersonal skills. Providing applicable courses for students in these soft skills in an online environment will be a challenge for educators in the coming years. Providing a learning environment that supports the social well-being of students who do not get the traditional college experience will require some innovative thinking from the learning designers.
The statistic that “Mobile usage is gradually overtaking desktop usage in terms of web traffic and number of users” (Bouchrika, 2023) will challenge future designers of online courses to think about how to structure learning tasks so that they can be completed using mobile phones. Multi platforming the online learning experience will require creativity, questioning old methods of teaching and assignment writing but first and foremost keeping up with technological developments. If there is not already a mobile app that can APA format your citations, one will likely be available soon.
One major online and blended learning component that continues to gain traction is gamification. According to Vatsyayan (2022), gamification allows for “innovative learning, comfort and interactivity, engagement and competition, lessons with games, rewards with gamified learning, and relieving stress and improving relationships.” There are additional reasons to integrate gamification concepts in online and blended learning. One study found that 67.7% of participants reported the gamified course was significantly more motivating than courses without gamification elements (Champman, 1998, p. 315). Gamification also could provide instant feedback in accessible and constructive ways. With the growth of AI, gamification becomes even more data-driven by AI’s access to a student’s learning history, and a learning experience can be tailored for even more personalization.
Virtual reality offers situational learning opportunities. For instance, “he construction management program at the University of North Carolina—Charlotte, for instance, uses interactive walkthrough videos of building inspections, rather than having students read about it or discuss it over Zoom” (Wood, 2024). This approach can be applied to various disciplines of learning, such as food safety courses in the restaurant/hotel/hospitality industry, anatomy courses in medical education, or architectural degree programs.
Nobel laureate Maskin (2024) argues in his lecture that globalization in its previous iterations reduced inequality in countries that benefited from it, but that globalization of the last decades has not reduced inequality in emerging markets, because it has lifted only those with education while leaving behind vast portions of populations who have not had access to education. Reducing inequality (and ensure a more stable future for the world) will require finding ways to bring education to the very poorest people in the emerging markets to offer them the opportunity to benefit from globalization as well. While the education delivery method is by no means the only obstacle, the lower per-learner costs could also be harnessed in this task.
One negative aspect of increased online enrolment (and thus less revenue-generating) could be the impact on extracurricular education. Smaller school collegiate sports whose budget is tied to tuition may have to go the way of the dodo as the number of in-person students dwindles. Larger institutions that can afford extracurriculars can continue to be funded by ticket sales and television rights. While this post is limited to the educational impacts, I wonder if there are no other adverse effects to the “collegiate experience” as we once knew it. Perhaps virtual realities (VR) will be a part of future college experiences. Still, for now, other, more traditional methods need to fill that role, as VR glasses have not yet become as ubiquitous as mobile phones.
Nobel laureate Maskin (2024) argues in his lecture that globalization in its previous iterations reduced inequality in countries that benefited from it, but that globalization of the last decades has not reduced inequality in emerging markets, because it has lifted only those with education while leaving behind vast portions of populations who have not had access to education. Reducing inequality (and ensuring a more stable future for the world) will require finding ways to bring education to the very poorest people in emerging markets, offering them the opportunity to benefit from globalization as well. While the education delivery method is by no means the only obstacle, the lower per-learner costs could also be harnessed in this task.
References:
Bouchrika, I. (2023, April 6). Mobile vs Desktop Usage Statistics for 2024, Research.com, https://research.com/software/mobile-vs-desktop-usage
Chapman, J. R., & Rich, P. J. (2018). Does educational gamification improve students’ motivation? If so, which game elements work best? Journal of Education for Business, 93(7), 315-322. DOI: 10.1080/08832323.2018.1490687
Gurchiek, K. (2023, December 29). What's Ahead in 2024? HR Leaders, Other Experts Share Predictions, SHMR, https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/news/2024-expert-predictions-human-resources
Hanson, M. (2024, January 10). College Enrollment & Student Demographic Statistics EducationData.org, https://educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics
Maggioncalda, J. (2023, May 1). 4 ways micro-credentials and skills-based hiring can help displaced workers access jobs of the future, Davos agenda, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/05/growth-summit-2023-4-ways-micro-credentials-skills-based-hiring-access-jobs/
Meyer, K. (2023, June 5). The case for college: Promising solutions to reverse college enrollment declines, Brookings Institute, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-case-for-college-promising-solutions-to-reverse-college-enrollment-declines/
UN University. (2024, February 16). Why globalization has failed to reduce inequality – a lecture by nobel laureate Eric S. Maskin. YouTube. https: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3s0oEa2yk
Vatsyayan, K. (2022, May 18). Gamification In EdTech: The Future Of Innovative Learning. eLearning Industry, https://elearningindustry.com/gamification-in-edtech-the-future-of-innovative-learning
Webstarter HR. (2023, December 20). The Future of Recruitment: Trends for 2024, LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/future-recruitment-trends-2024-webstartedhr-hmlif
Wood, S. (2024, February 8). 11 Online Learning Trends to Know Now. U.S. News and World Reports. https://www.usnews.com/higher-education/online-education/articles/discover-current-online-learning-trends
